Ethical Track RecordEXPLORER

Tracing the moral arc and mapping the expanding moral circle

Explore who correctly anticipated ethical advances and who got things wrong.

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800 BCE1 CE1200 CE160017001800190020002100ethical progress →AncientYearAbolition of slavery in selected countries and colonies · 1833–1888 · British colonies (1833–1838), French colonies (1848), US (1865), Brazil (1888)Abolition of slavery1833–1888Racial equality under the law in selected countries · 1949–1996 · United States, India, Great Britain, France, Australia, Brazil, and South AfricaRacial equalityunder the law1949–1996Recognition of colonial self-determination · 1945–1960 · United Nations; international normative benchmarkLegal prohibition of sex discrimination · 1964–1975 · United States (employment, 1964); Great Britain (1975 Act)Women’s suffrage in selected major countries · 1918–1950 · UK, Germany, US, Brazil, France, Japan, China, and IndiaWomen’s suffrage1918–1950Religious liberty in selected Western countries · 1689–1919 · England (1689), Virginia / US (1786–1791), France (1905), Germany (1919)Religious liberty1689–1919Decriminalization of same-sex relations in selected jurisdictions · 1967–2003 · England and Wales (1967) to United States (2003)Homosexualitydecriminalization1967–2003Civil marriage equality in selected jurisdictions · 2001–2015 · Netherlands (2001) to United States (2015)International prohibition of torture · 1948–1984 · UN human-rights frameworkLegal reforms toward ending child labor · 1833–1938 · Selected reforms in the UK, France, and United StatesEnding child labor1833–1938Statutory animal protection · 1911–1966 · England, Wales and Ireland (1911; Scotland excluded); United States federal law (1966)Animal legalprotection1911–1966Farmed-animal welfare legislation · 1968 · United KingdomDeath penalty abolition for all crimes in selected Western countries · 1949–1998 · West Germany, France, United Kingdom, and Canada; abolition for all crimesEnding capital punishment1949–1998Bible: Opposes reform. Death penalty for homicide. 600–400 BCE. -1298.5 to -1174 weighted years (ethical foresight) .Bible: Opposes reform. Capital penalty for male same-sex intercourse. 600–400 BCE. -1301 to -1183 weighted years (ethical foresight) .Bible: Opposes reform. Foreign slaves as inheritable property. 600–400 BCE. -1243.5 to -1116 weighted years (ethical foresight) .Aristotle: Opposes reform. Defends natural slavery. 350–322 BCE. -1118.5 to -1077 weighted years (ethical foresight) .Aristotle: Opposes reform. Women’s deliberation without ruling authority. 350–322 BCE. -1162 to -1142.5 weighted years (ethical foresight) .Seneca: Opposes reform. Permits execution when required by public advantage. 55–56 CE. -971.5 to -946.5 weighted years (ethical foresight) .Bible: Opposes reform. Obedience to earthly slave masters. 60–100 CE. -914 to -866.5 weighted years (ethical foresight) .Bible: Opposes reform. Wives’ submission to husbands. 60–100 CE. -957.5 to -932 weighted years (ethical foresight) .Nāgārjuna: Supports reform. Banish murderers instead of executing them. 150–250 CE. 1699 to 1848 weighted years (ethical foresight) .Nāgārjuna: Supports reform. Reject torment and care for prisoners. 150–250 CE. 1698 to 1834 weighted years (ethical foresight) .Quran: Opposes reform. Retaliation for murder, with pardon. 622–632 CE. -688 to -658.5 weighted years (ethical foresight) .Quran: Opposes reform. Recognizes possession of female captives. 622–632 CE. -633 to -600.5 weighted years (ethical foresight) .Quran: Opposes reform. Unequal shares for sons and daughters. 622–632 CE. -676.5 to -666 weighted years (ethical foresight) .Ibn Rushd (Averroes): Supports reform. Women can be philosophers, guardians and rulers. 1177–1195 CE. 769 to 798 weighted years (ethical foresight) .Thomas Aquinas: Opposes reform. Capital punishment for the common good. 1271–1272 CE. -363.5 to -338.5 weighted years (ethical foresight) .Thomas Aquinas: Opposes reform. Coercion and execution of persistent heretics. 1271–1272 CE. -324 to -208.5 weighted years (ethical foresight) .Martin Luther: Opposes reform. Persecution of Jewish religious life. 1543. -188 to -73 weighted years (ethical foresight) .Justus Lipsius: Opposes reform. One public religion. 1589. -165 to -50 weighted years (ethical foresight) .John Locke: Opposes reform. Withholding toleration from atheists. 1689. -115 to 0 weighted years (ethical foresight) .John Woolman: Supports reform. The natural right of freedom. 1754. 79 to 134 weighted years (ethical foresight) .Jean-Jacques Rousseau: Opposes reform. Exclusion for rejecting the civil creed. 1762. -78.5 to 0 weighted years (ethical foresight) .Jean-Jacques Rousseau: Supports reform. Slavery cannot create a legitimate right. 1762. 71 to 126 weighted years (ethical foresight) .Jean-Jacques Rousseau: Opposes reform. Women’s subordination and different education. 1762. -106.5 to -101 weighted years (ethical foresight) .Voltaire: Supports reform. Rejecting a right of religious intolerance. 1763. 0 to 156 weighted years (ethical foresight) .Cesare Beccaria: Supports reform. Against ordinary use of the death penalty. 1764. 185 to 234 weighted years (ethical foresight) .Cesare Beccaria: Supports reform. Torture cannot establish guilt. 1764. 184 to 220 weighted years (ethical foresight) .John Wesley: Supports reform. Liberty belongs to every human being. 1774. 59 to 114 weighted years (ethical foresight) .Jeremy Bentham: Supports reform. Against punishing consensual relations. 1785. 182 to 218 weighted years (ethical foresight) .Jeremy Bentham: Supports reform. The capacity to suffer. 1789. 122 to 177 weighted years (ethical foresight) .Mary Wollstonecraft: Supports reform. Women ought to have representatives. 1792. 126 to 158 weighted years (ethical foresight) .Thomas Paine: Supports reform. An equal right to religious belief. 1794. 0 to 125 weighted years (ethical foresight) .J. G. Fichte: Opposes reform. Married women’s indirect voting. 1797. -76.5 to -60.5 weighted years (ethical foresight) .J. G. Fichte: Opposes reform. A husband administers his wife’s rights. 1797. -89 to -83.5 weighted years (ethical foresight) .Immanuel Kant: Opposes reform. Execution as a requirement of justice. 1797. -100.5 to -76 weighted years (ethical foresight) .Immanuel Kant: Opposes reform. Women excluded from active citizenship. 1797. -76.5 to -60.5 weighted years (ethical foresight) .Jeremy Bentham: Supports reform. Women’s equal claim to the vote—in principle. 1818–1830. 88 to 132 weighted years (ethical foresight) .James Mill: Opposes reform. Exclude women from independent political representation. 1825. -62.5 to -46.5 weighted years (ethical foresight) .Søren Kierkegaard: Opposes reform. Spiritual equality with worldly subordination. 1847. -64 to -58.5 weighted years (ethical foresight) .Friedrich Engels: Supports reform. Ending exploitative factory labour by children. 1848. 0 to 90 weighted years (ethical foresight) .Karl Marx: Supports reform. Ending exploitative factory labour by children. 1848. 0 to 90 weighted years (ethical foresight) .John Stuart Mill: Supports reform. Defending emancipation against Carlyle. 1849–1850. 0 to 39 weighted years (ethical foresight) .Karl Marx: Supports reform. Death to slavery. 1864. 0 to 24 weighted years (ethical foresight) .John Stuart Mill: Supports reform. A principle of perfect equality. 1869. 95 to 106 weighted years (ethical foresight) .John Stuart Mill: Opposes reform. Against complete abolition: retain execution for aggravated murder. 1873. -62.5 to -38 weighted years (ethical foresight) .Friedrich Nietzsche: Opposes reform. Slavery and aristocratic culture. 1886. -53 to 0 weighted years (ethical foresight) .Friedrich Nietzsche: Opposes reform. Against women’s equal rights and education. 1886. -44.5 to -39 weighted years (ethical foresight) .Henry S. Salt: Supports reform. Extending rights to animals. 1892. 19 to 74 weighted years (ethical foresight) .Leo Tolstoy: Supports reform. The moral objection to eating animals. 1892. 108 to 208 weighted years (ethical foresight) (provisional).Swami Vivekananda: Supports reform. Education for daughters. 1893. 71 to 82 weighted years (ethical foresight) .Liang Qichao: Supports reform. Comparable education for women. 1897. 67 to 78 weighted years (ethical foresight) .Henry Sidgwick: Supports reform. Government should prevent unnecessary animal suffering. 1897. 14 to 69 weighted years (ethical foresight) .Henry Sidgwick: Opposes reform. Retain colonial dependency under a racial capacity test. 1897. -31.5 to -24 weighted years (ethical foresight) .Henry Sidgwick: Opposes reform. Permits racial exclusion from the franchise. 1897. -49.5 to -26 weighted years (ethical foresight) .Henry Sidgwick: Supports reform. Do not impose the settlers’ religion by force. 1897. 0 to 22 weighted years (ethical foresight) .Henry Sidgwick: Supports reform. Enfranchise otherwise eligible independent women. 1897. 21 to 53 weighted years (ethical foresight) .Virchand Raghavji Gandhi: Supports reform. Duties toward animals. 1893–1901. 10 to 73 weighted years (ethical foresight) .Virchand Raghavji Gandhi: Supports reform. Against eating animal flesh. 1893–1901. 99 to 207 weighted years (ethical foresight) (provisional).Hermann Cohen: Supports reform. No legal justification for capital punishment. 1904. 45 to 94 weighted years (ethical foresight) .Kang Youwei: Opposes reform. Coercive racial homogenization. 1902–1927. -47 to -11 weighted years (ethical foresight) .Kang Youwei: Supports reform. Women as independent persons. 1902–1927. 37 to 73 weighted years (ethical foresight) .Rosa Luxemburg: Supports reform. Remove capital punishment from the penal code. 1918. 31 to 80 weighted years (ethical foresight) .Rosa Luxemburg: Supports reform. End barbarous prison punishments. 1918. 30 to 66 weighted years (ethical foresight) .Alexandra Kollontai: Supports reform. Equality within the family. 1920. 44 to 55 weighted years (ethical foresight) .M. K. Gandhi: Supports reform. Protection beyond the human species. 1921. 0 to 45 weighted years (ethical foresight) .Champat Rai Jain: Supports reform. Against mistreating animals. 1929. 0 to 37 weighted years (ethical foresight) .Rashid Rida: Supports reform. Against white racial oppression. 1933–1934. 15 to 63 weighted years (ethical foresight) .Rashid Rida: Opposes reform. Allowing limited continuation of slavery. 1933–1934. -101 to -45 weighted years (ethical foresight) .Simone de Beauvoir: Supports reform. Women as free and autonomous beings. 1949. 15 to 26 weighted years (ethical foresight) .B. R. Ambedkar: Supports reform. Equal access to knowledge. 1951–1956. 8 to 24 weighted years (ethical foresight) .Bertrand Russell: Supports reform. The survival of the human race. 1955. 45 to 75 weighted years (ethical foresight) (provisional).Albert Camus: Supports reform. Immediate abolition of capital punishment. 1957. 0 to 41 weighted years (ethical foresight) .Jean-Paul Sartre: Supports reform. Torture as a plague. 1958. 0 to 26 weighted years (ethical foresight) .Martin Luther King Jr.: Supports reform. Segregation laws degrade personality. 1963–1964. 0 to 33 weighted years (ethical foresight) .A. C. Bhaktivedanta Swami Prabhupada: Opposes reform. Capital punishment as beneficial to the offender. 1972. -23 to 0 weighted years (ethical foresight) .Hans Jonas: Supports reform. Responsibility for humanity’s continued existence. 1973. 27 to 57 weighted years (ethical foresight) (provisional).Abul A‘la Maududi: Supports reform. Rejecting distinctions of race and nationality. 1976. 0 to 20 weighted years (ethical foresight) .Derek Parfit: Supports reform. The distinctive badness of extinction. 1984. 16 to 46 weighted years (ethical foresight) (provisional).Peter Singer: Supports reform. Ending animal farming for food. 1989. 11 to 111 weighted years (ethical foresight) (provisional).Yew-Kwang Ng: Supports reform. A science of welfare in nature. 1995. 65 to 105 weighted years (ethical foresight) (provisional).John Leslie: Supports reform. No right to disregard extinction risks. 1996. 4 to 34 weighted years (ethical foresight) (provisional).Nick Bostrom: Supports reform. Reducing existential risk as a priority. 2003. 0 to 27 weighted years (ethical foresight) (provisional).Thich Nhat Hanh: Supports reform. Compassionate vegetarianism. 2007. 0 to 93 weighted years (ethical foresight) (provisional).Martha Nussbaum: Supports reform. An equal right to marry. 2009. 0 to 6 weighted years (ethical foresight) .Nick Bostrom: Supports reform. Equal moral status across substrates. 2011. 29 to 89 weighted years (ethical foresight) (provisional).Brian Tomasik: Supports reform. Reducing suffering in the wild. 2015. 45 to 85 weighted years (ethical foresight) (provisional).Brian Tomasik: Supports reform. Taking insect suffering seriously. 2015–2016. 44 to 85 weighted years (ethical foresight) (provisional).Massimo Pigliucci: Supports reform. A modern Stoic case for vegetarianism. 2018. 0 to 82 weighted years (ethical foresight) (provisional).Toby Ord: Supports reform. Safeguarding humanity’s future. 2020. 0 to 10 weighted years (ethical foresight) (provisional).Hilary Greaves: Supports reform. The expected value of preventing extinction. 2021. 0 to 9 weighted years (ethical foresight) (provisional).William MacAskill: Supports reform. The expected value of preventing extinction. 2021. 0 to 9 weighted years (ethical foresight) (provisional).Compressed gap: 297–82 BCE. Display only; scores use actual dates.Compressed gap: 681–1101 CE. Display only; scores use actual dates.Bentham · Homosexuality decriminalizationBentham · Animal welfareBentham · Women’s suffrage1833 — British colonies: Slavery Abolition Act passed; territorial exceptions and compulsory apprenticeship remained.1838 — British colonies: Compulsory apprenticeship ended in the covered colonies.1848 — French colonies: Decree abolished slavery in French colonies and possessions.1865 — US: Thirteenth Amendment abolished slavery, retaining an exception for punishment after criminal conviction.1888 — Brazil: Lei Áurea abolished slavery nationwide.1949 — India: The Constitution adopted on November 26 included equality before the law and protections against discrimination on grounds including race and caste in Articles 14–16. These provisions took effect on January 26, 1950.1964 — United States: The Civil Rights Act prohibited racial discrimination in covered public accommodations, federally assisted programs and employment, strengthening protections after decades of segregation.1965 — United States: The Voting Rights Act established federal protections and enforcement against racial discrimination in voting.1965 — Great Britain: The Race Relations Act prohibited racial discrimination in specified public places and established the Race Relations Board. It did not yet provide general employment or housing protection.1968 — Great Britain: The Race Relations Act extended racial-discrimination protections to employment, housing and other areas. Later legislation strengthened enforcement and addressed indirect discrimination.1972 — France: Law 72-546 of July 1 strengthened legal protection against racial discrimination, including discriminatory refusal of goods, services or employment, and incitement to racial hatred.1975 — Australia: The federal Racial Discrimination Act prohibited discrimination based on race, colour, descent and national or ethnic origin in covered areas of public life.1988 — Brazil: The Constitution promulgated on October 5 guaranteed equality before the law, set an objective of eliminating prejudice including race and colour, and made racism a non-bailable offence without a limitation period, subject to implementing law.1996 — South Africa: The final Constitution signed on December 10 entrenched equal protection and prohibited unfair racial discrimination in section 9, building on the interim Constitution. It took effect on February 4, 1997.1918 — UK: Women aged 30 or over meeting specified qualifications gained the parliamentary vote.1918 — Germany: Women gained equal voting rights under the November 1918 reforms; they first voted nationally in January 1919.1920 — US: The Nineteenth Amendment prohibited denying voting rights on the basis of sex; racial and other barriers remained.1928 — UK: The Equal Franchise Act gave women the same voting qualifications as men.1932 — Brazil: The 1932 Electoral Code recognized women’s voting rights; literacy and other exclusions limited the electorate.1944 — France: The ordinance of 21 April 1944 recognized women as voters and candidates on the same terms as men; first voting followed in 1945.1945 — Japan: The December 1945 election-law reform granted voting rights to women aged 20 or over; the first election followed in 1946.1949 — China: The IPU dates women’s suffrage in China to 1949. This marks formal rights, not a finding of competitive democratic elections.1950 — India: The Constitution established universal adult suffrage, including women regardless of caste, race, or income; the first general election followed in 1951–1952.1689 — England: The Toleration Act permitted public worship for most Protestant dissenters under conditions. Catholics and some other groups remained excluded, and civil restrictions persisted.1786 — Virginia, US: The Virginia Statute protected religious belief and rejected compulsory support for religious worship.1791 — US federal government: The First Amendment prohibited federal establishment of religion and protected free exercise. Its original scope did not immediately remove state-level establishments or restrictions.1905 — France: Article 1 guaranteed freedom of conscience and religious worship subject to public-order restrictions. Territorial exceptions mean this was not uniform across all French jurisdictions.1919 — Germany: Article 135 of the Weimar Constitution guaranteed freedom of faith and conscience to residents. The constitutional guarantee was not an assurance against later persecution.1967 — UK / England & Wales: Partial decriminalization of private consensual sex between men aged 21 or over; exclusions remained.1969 — Canada: Partial decriminalization of private consensual sexual acts between two adults aged 21 or over.1994 — Germany: Paragraph 175 repealed, removing the remaining special criminal restrictions on male same-sex activity.1997 — Australia / Tasmania: Tasmania became the last Australian state to decriminalize consensual same-sex activity.2003 — US: Lawrence v. Texas invalidated laws criminalizing private consensual adult same-sex intimacy.1949 — West Germany: Article 102 of the Basic Law abolished the death penalty for all crimes under the law of the Federal Republic. This is West Germany’s date, not East Germany’s, and does not cover occupation-authority jurisdiction.1981 — France: The law of 9 October 1981 abolished the death penalty.1998 — UK: Abolition of the remaining civilian and military capital offences completed abolition for all crimes in the United Kingdom.1998 — Canada: The death penalty was removed from the National Defence Act, completing abolition.1833 — United Kingdom: The Factory Act barred children under nine from most covered textile factories, limited older children's hours, and introduced factory inspectors; it was not a universal employment ban.1841 — France: The 1841 law set a minimum age of eight and limited working hours in covered industrial establishments; its scope and enforcement were limited.1938 — United States: The Fair Labor Standards Act established federal child-labor protections for covered work. Agricultural and other exemptions meant it did not prohibit every form of children's employment.1911 — England, Wales and Ireland: The Protection of Animals Act consolidated anti-cruelty protections; enacted in 1911 and effective January 1912. Scotland was excluded. Earlier protections already existed.1966 — United States: The Laboratory Animal Welfare Act established federal licensing and humane-care requirements for specified animals in the research supply chain and at research facilities. Its initial coverage was limited to dogs, cats, nonhuman primates, guinea pigs, hamsters, and rabbits; it was not universal animal protection.2005 — Oxford, UK: Future of Humanity Institute founded at Oxford in 2005; the institute operated until 2024.2011 — US / international: Global Catastrophic Risk Institute founded by Seth Baum and Tony Barrett in 2011.2012 — Cambridge, UK: Centre for the Study of Existential Risk established in 2012 by Huw Price, Martin Rees, and Jaan Tallinn.2014 — US: Future of Life Institute founded in 2014, with its launch event at MIT.Abolishing factory farming / veganism: 2000–2100 — illustrative scenarioEnding factory farming / veganism2000–2100Humanity starts to take extinction risks seriously: 2000–2030 — illustrative scenarioHumanity starts totake extinctionrisks seriously2000–2030Wild-animal welfare statutes: 2060–2100 — illustrative scenarioWild-animal welfarestatutes2060–2100AI welfare statutes: 2040–2100 — illustrative scenarioAI welfare statutes2040–2100
Historical progress intervals 13 reforms

Each range spans selected legal or institutional milestones. Single years mark individual reforms. Dates apply to the places named below, not worldwide acceptance. Select a reform for its endpoints and sources.

Comparisons (read with a heavy dose of salt!)

Ethical foresight: support 100 years before reform scores +100; opposition 100 years before scores −50, and 100 years after scores −100. Opposition at reform scores zero. Results use weighted years; date ranges show possible scores.

Ranking requires 3 core figures with scored historical evidence and 3 domains. Filtered results describe this corpus, not a representative census. Rankings depend on the chosen dates and legal scope. The alternative set includes narrower animal protections from 1822 instead of the 1911–1966 interval; Bentham’s lead changes from 122–177 to 33 years. Compare both sets before drawing conclusions about traditions. Postdictions are always excluded, even when shown on the chart. Future scenario changes cannot alter this ranking.

TraditionMean foresight scoreCore figuresDomainsCoverage
1Rights / contract+76 weighted yrs+54 to +987811 historical episodes
1 provisional / unscored
2Utilitarian / consequentialist+63 weighted yrs+48 to +7851014 historical episodes
12 provisional / unscored
3Socialist+41 weighted yrs+19 to +63668 historical episodes
0 provisional / unscored
4Hindu+29 weighted yrs+16 to +42333 historical episodes
0 provisional / unscored
5Existentialist-3 weighted yrs-19 to +13446 historical episodes
1 provisional / unscored
6Kantian-55 weighted yrs-64 to -45335 historical episodes
0 provisional / unscored
7Islamic-295 weighted yrs-311 to -279447 historical episodes
9 provisional / unscored
8Christian-543 weighted yrs-580 to -5068613 historical episodes
11 provisional / unscored
9Aristotelian / virtue-555 weighted yrs-581 to -530345 historical episodes
1 provisional / unscored
—BuddhistInsufficient coverage233 historical episodes
3 provisional / unscored
—JainInsufficient coverage212 historical episodes
2 provisional / unscored
—ConfucianInsufficient coverage223 historical episodes
1 provisional / unscored
—CapabilitiesInsufficient coverage111 historical episodes
0 provisional / unscored
—Secular humanistInsufficient coverage000 historical episodes
1 provisional / unscored
—StoicInsufficient coverage222 historical episodes
5 provisional / unscored